Yesterday we released our annual Thanksgiving weekend and Cyber Monday consumer surveys. There has been a lot of focus on the results showing that fewer consumers shopped over the weekend and that those who did shop spent less. At the same time, NRF's annual holiday sales forecast remains strong at 4.1 percent higher than last year and we are highly optimistic that we'll see that growth.
So if that's the case, how do you explain this weekend’s decrease? Before I explain, it’s important to recognize that consumer surveys provide a snapshot of shoppers’ intentions and actions and are not an analysis of retailers’ actual sales. That said, we believe there are three basic but important reasons for this shift:
1. Retailers began providing holiday discounts much earlier, both in stores and online, so consumers didn’t have to wait until Black Friday for really good deals on gifts and items they wanted. And retailers plan to continue discounting through the season, so the urgency to capture the best deal wasn’t driven by one single day.
2. The economy is improving, with more jobs being created and consumer confidence rebounding. On top of that, gasoline prices continue to dive, adding nearly $60 billion to consumers’ wallets over the last 60 days alone. During the recession, Black Friday deals were critically important as consumers pinched pennies and tightened belts. Today, with a little more optimism and some additional financial resources, consumers are still seeking value, but in different ways. They are willing to pay more for an item that comes with free shipping, or spend some extra dollars if it means they can avoid the weekend rush. Value means different things to different people, and it’s not a one-size-fits-all proposition.
3. Consumers are more savvy and sophisticated than ever before. The recession had a tremendous impact on how consumers shop, and they are not going to forget those difficult times. So while they can purchase something today, they may be inclined to wait because they know — from experience — that there are more deals and discounts coming in the days and weeks leading up to Christmas. They have a few more dollars in their wallets, but that doesn't mean they aren’t going to be smart about how and when they spend.
We remain positive about the future of sales for this holiday season, but it’s a marathon and not a sprint. Many consumers are far from finished with their shopping, and retailers are still working hard to earn every sale.
We are excited to work with retailers who are redefining the holiday shopping experience. As Ben Franklin once observed, “If you're finished changing, you're finished.” I happen to work in an industry that changes daily and is never finished changing how it provides the best value for its customers, its employees and the communities it serves.
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